EPA and Air Pollution

The EPA has recently announced a “Proposed Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act.” It is summarized here for instance,

The Administrator signed a proposal with two distinct findings regarding greenhouse gases under section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act:

The Administrator is proposing to find that the current and projected concentrations of the mix of six key greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)—in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations. This is referred to as the endangerment finding. The Administrator is further proposing to find that the combined emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the threat of climate change. This is referred to as the cause or contribute finding.
This proposed action, as well as any final action in the future, would not itself impose any requirements on industry or other entities. An endangerment finding under one provision of the Clean Air Act would not by itself automatically trigger regulation under the entire Act.

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Decadal scale coolings not all that unusual

Most people spending much time on the blogosphere are well aware of claims that “Global Warming stopped in 1998” or similar-style remarks. Even though the 1998-2008 period contains most of the warmest years on the instrumental record (something that is very unusual), and all the years are well above the traditional 1951-1980 (or 1961-90) climatologies, a key focus for skeptics has been the lack of upward slope in a linear regression over the 1998-2008 period.

It has also been emphasized by many that a traditionally defined climatology involves roughly 30 years of data, and so at least a few decades are needed to say much about the underlying trends in climate. However, there is not much in the peer-reviewed literature regarding the probability (or significance) of decadal flatlines, or coolings, when the climate regime is superimposed on a long-term warming trend due to radiative forcing. This is the subject of an upcoming paper in Geophysical Research Letters by David Easterling and Michael Wehner in Is the Climate Warming or Cooling? (subscription required, abstract not available since the paper has not been formally published yet). Their conclusion is that these kind of decadal time-frames can yield slopes of either warming or cooling in a warming world, even in the later 21st century, and nothing is odd about the 1998-2008 trend.